Politics & Governance / Domestic Politics / Political Reform & Transition

中国的政策集权化的大转向|The Great Centralization: China's Major Policy Shift

这篇由罗凯成、王绍达和杨达勇撰写的论文研究了中国中央与地方政府间政策制定的动态关系。研究者利用大数据和自然语言处理技术，分析了过去二十年间数十万份政策文件，揭示了中国政体从地方创新驱动向中央集权化的显著转型。数据表明，2013年是一个关键转折点，官员的晋升激励从奖励政策创新转向了奖励对中央指令的合规性。这种集权趋势虽然加强了政令统一，却也抑制了地方因地制宜的灵活性，导致产业政策与地方实际条件的匹配度下降。研究估算，这种政策错配给中国的工业产值、出口额和专利申请量带来了显著的经济损失。总之，该文探讨了威权体制下集权化对国家治理效能与经济发展的深远影响。 论文地址：http://davidyyang.com/pdfs/centralization_draft.pdf 这篇论文摘要涉及政治学和经济学的专业术语，比如“政策错配”、“因地制宜”以及“晋升激励”等。为了确保学术表达的准确性，我为您整理了以下译文： This paper, authored by Kaicheng Luo, Shaoda Wang, and Dayong Yang, investigates the dynamic relationship between central and local governments in China regarding policy formulation. Utilizing big data and natural language processing techniques, the researchers analyzed hundreds of thousands of policy documents over the past two decades, revealing a significant shift in China's political system from locally driven innovation toward centralized policy-making. The data indicates that 2013 was a pivotal turning point, where officials' promotion incentives shifted from rewarding policy innovation to rewarding compliance with central directives. While this trend of centralization strengthens the uniformity of policy implementation, it has also dampened local flexibility in adapting measures to local conditions, leading to a decline in the alignment between industrial policies and local realities. The study estimates that this policy misalignment has resulted in substantial economic losses in terms of industrial output, export value, and patent applications. In summary, the paper explores the profound implications of centralization on state governance efficacy and economic development within an authoritarian regime.