Economics & Finance / Macroeconomics / International Trade & Globalization

The EU Enlargement Was a Math Experiment: 20 Years Later, Who Really Won?

Enlarging the European Union: A Computable General Equilibrium Assessment of Different Integration Scenarios of Central and Eastern Europe

Hubertus Hille

In 2001, economist Hubertus Hille ran a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to predict the economic fallout of the EU's largest expansion into Central and Eastern Europe. His findings were a mathematical prophecy that politicians ignored. This video unpacks Hille's book, 'Enlarging the European Union: A Computable General Equilibrium Assessment of Different Integration Scenarios of Central and Eastern Europe', revealing how trade liberalization, capital transfers, and selective migration reshaped the continent. Discover why free trade only delivered a 0.9% GDP boost, how Western taxpayers subsidized their own wage stagnation, and the dark irony of brain drain that left Eastern workers poorer. We break down the hidden winners and losers—from Western blue-collar workers who gained from foreign managers to Eastern elites who lost their monopoly. This isn't just history; it's a roadmap for understanding today's populist backlash and economic divides.