Politics & Governance / Domestic Politics / Democracy & Elections

Does a Close Election Actually Make You Vote? The Swiss Evidence Will Shock You.

Leonardo Bursztyn

We all assume tight races drive up turnout. But proving it is a nightmare. Observational studies can't separate closeness from issue importance or campaign ads. Experiments fail because everyone already knows the race is close. This study cracks the code using Swiss referendums. They find a clear causal link: when polls show a close race, people vote more. But here's the kicker—it's not about ads. It's about voters themselves reacting to the information. Before polls existed, people relied on local gossip, which was often wrong. After 1998, when national polls arrived, even voters in non-representative towns suddenly tuned in. The media amplifies this effect. Even accidental exposure to poll coverage boosts turnout. The implications? Polls don't just predict elections—they shape them. This isn't just academic. It's about whether your vote matters. Watch to see how a single poll can flip a high-stakes referendum on taxes or immigration. Paper by Leonardo Bursztyn et al. (2017).